In a back yard vineyard in Napa valley with 10 grape vines in a row, if the weather works well (just right), rain in the spring and dry through summer, the yield for each vine is distributed roughly binomial with N=800, p=.71 . In a drought the yield is Binomial with N=800 and P=.6, while if the year is too wet, the yield of useful grapes per vine is N=700, P=.8. Under climate change the probability of a just right year is about .2, of a too wet year is .1, and a dry year is .7. On a just right year the wine can sell for 200 dollars/bottle, on a dry year the quality drops so it will sell for 100 dollars a bottle, on wet year it will sell for 25 dollars a bottle. (The yield for all 10 vines was more than 5600 grapes. (use the normal approximation to the binomial) Given this yield:
