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23-06-2024
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Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 24 13 21 14 20 23 15 (a) Choose the correct time series plot. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) Graph (iii) What type of pattern exists in the data? Horizontal pattern (b) Develop a three-month moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE: The forecast for month 8: (c) Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for month 8. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Do not round intermediate calculation. MSE: The forecast for month 8: (d) Compare the three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? 3-month moving average (e) Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in the smallest MSE. Do not round intermediate calculations. Use a two-decimal digit precision for the exponential smoothing coefficient. α =

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